US recession by end of 2026?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if either of the following conditions is met:

1.The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change
in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter
is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters
between Q1 2026 and Q4 2026 (inclusive),
as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

2.The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
publicly announces that a recession has occurred
in the United States, at any point during 2026,
with the announcement made by the time
the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that advance estimates will be considered.
For example, if upon release, the advance estimate
for Q3 2026 was negative, and the Q2 2026's most recent,
up-to-date estimate was also negative,
this market would resolve to "Yes".

If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate
for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative,
this market will stay open until the Advance estimate
of Q4 2026 is published, at which point
it will resolve to "Yes"
if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER
declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements
from the NBER and the BEA's estimate of seasonally adjusted
annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP
from previous quarters as released
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product