Will Luis Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
If Luís Marques Mendes wins the 2026 Portugal
presidential election.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, the results of the election are not
known by 2027-12-31 17:00 UTC,
this market will also resolve to "No".

Portugal Presidential elections are scheduled to be held
on 18 or 25 January 2026,
with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026.

A second round will be held if no candidate secures
more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market includes any potential second round.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election
as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.

If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based
solely on the official results as reported
by the Portuguese government, specifically
the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional
de Eleições, CNE)
https://www.cne.pt/