Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes"
if the United States acquires control of
any land territory that is part of Greenland
by 2026-12-31 17:00 UTC.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to"No".
Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition
of primary or exclusive jurisdiction
or control qualifies.
-
Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify
if a binding agreement or legal instrument results
in a defined area of Greenland coming under
the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated
as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S.
political classification), even if the effective date
occurs after the market deadline. -
Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction
or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement
or legal instrument establishes a defined area
in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary
or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory,
such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark
and Greenland do not apply, except
by U.S. permission.
Such agreements or instruments will qualify even
if the effective date occurs after the market deadline.
- Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary
or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area
of Greenland through force, this will also qualify.
An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied
by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument
(e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed
text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing
such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer
of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction
or control, even if this transfer or acquisition
takes effect after the market deadline.
Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals,
frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify.
Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type
arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial
concessions, or other permissions to use land
(including leases) will not alone qualify.
Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control
in Greenland that existed at market creation
will not count as new qualifying control.
Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited
to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion
of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession,
even if the handover date for such territory or possession
is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing
a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary
U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark
and Greenland's ordinary legal authority does not apply
except by U.S. permission.
The primary resolution source for this market
will be official information from the governments
of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland.
However, a consensus of credible reporting
may also be used.
