Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Rules

This market will resolve to"Yes"
if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling
regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases
to govern by 2026-12-31 17:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating
that core structures of the Islamic Republic
(e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader,
the Guardian Council, IRGC control under
clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated,
or replaced by a fundamentally different governing
system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority
of the population of Iran.

This could occur via revolution, civil war, military
coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies
if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises
sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms,
or leadership succession do not qualify.

Internal coups or power shifts that preserve
the Islamic Republic's core structures also
do not qualify.

Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new
provisional government, revolutionary council,
or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic
will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel
or exile groups will not qualify unless
the Islamic Republic no longer administers
the majority of the Iranian population
within Iran.

The resolution source will be a consensus
of credible reporting.