Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if Israel initiates a drone, missile,
or air strike on Iranian soil
or any official Iranian embassy
or consulate by 2026-03-31 17:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying
"strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs,
drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic
missiles) launched by Israeli military forces
that impact Iranian ground territory
or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

E.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit
by an Israeli missile, this market
will resolve to "Yes".

Missiles or drones which are intercepted
and surface-to-air missile strikes
will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution
regardless of whether they land on Iranian
territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire,
FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions,
naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations
conducted by Israeli ground operatives
will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus
of credible reporting.