Canada recession before 2027?
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes",
if either of the following conditions are met:
-
The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle
Council publicly announces that a recession
has occurred in Canada, at any point
before 2027, with the announcement made
by 2026-12-31 17:00 UTC. -
The seasonally adjusted annualized percent
change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP
(expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP
from the previous quarter is less than 0.0
for two consecutive quarters
between Q1 2026 and Q4 2026 (inclusive),
as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent
vintages indicating negative GDP growth will
qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions.
E.g., if upon release, the initial estimate
for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's
most recent, up-to-date estimate was also
negative, this market would resolve to "Yes".
If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate
for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative,
this market will stay open until Statistics
Canada publishes the initial estimate
for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve
to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative
or if the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle
Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official
announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute's
Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada's
estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized
percent change in quarterly Canadian real
GDP from previous quarters as released
by Statistics Canada.
E.g., as reported in the line "Gross domestic
product at market prices" in Table 3
of the quarterly GDP release:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
