Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if China commences a military offensive
intended to establish control over
any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
by 2026-03-31 17:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration
of the Republic of China including
any inhabited islands will qualify.
However uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market
will be the official confirmation by China,
Taiwan, the United Nations,
or any permanent member of the UN Security
Council. However a consensus of credible
reporting will also be used.