Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if any US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike
on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported
to have occurred between
2026-01-13 and 2026-12-31 17:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike"
is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles
(including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise
or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States
operatives, including military forces, intelligence
agencies, or other U.S. government operatives,
that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory
(including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding
territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air
missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes"
resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan
territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire,
ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks
will not qualify.

Any strike occurring from 2026-01-13
to 2026-12-31 17:00 UTC that is claimed
by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government
will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus
of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second
day after the resolution time.

If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed
by a consensus of credible reporting by that time,
it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike
was later confirmed to have taken place.