Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if the United States commences a military offensive
intended to establish control over any portion of Iran
between 2025-07-07 and 2025-12-31 17:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled
by Iran or the United States as of 2025-07-07,
will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus
of credible sources.