Market ID: 350
2025-07-31 UTC
259,872.63 USDZ
end

Israel strikes Iran before August?

0.75%
99.25%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes"
if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on
Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate
by 2025-07-31 16:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike"
is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles
(including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli
military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any
official Iranian embassy or consulate,
e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli
missile, this market will resolve to "Yes".

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air
missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution
regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or
cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM
strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks,
or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives
will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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