US recession in 2025?
US Economy Recession Predictions
The US economy's recession was already announced
at the FED's recent conference in May.
Jerome Pauwell mentioned it could kick off in July 2025.
Most financial experts believe it has
a high chance of appearing in 2025.
Looking for a US recession forecast for 2025?
See how Zephyr users predict in real time!
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes"
if either of the following conditions are met:
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
publicly announces that a recession occurred
in the United States at any point in 2025.
The announcement made by 2025-12-31 17:00 UTC.
The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change
in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter
is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters
between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive),
as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered.
For example,
if the advance estimate for Q2 2025 is negative
at the time of release,
and the most recent available estimate for Q1 2025
is also negative, this market will resolve to "Yes"**.
If, as of 2025-12-31 17:00 UTC,
the latest estimate for Q3 2025 GDP is negative,
the market will remain open
until the advance estimate for Q4 2025 is published.
At which point it will resolve to "Yes"
if Q4 2025 is negative or if the NBER has declared
a recession by then.
The resolution source will be official announcements
from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate
of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change
in quarterly U.S. real GDP from previous quarters,
as published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA):
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is the US in recession or just slowing down in 2025?
There are no clear indicators saying that. Yet, most experts concur that it has high chances of beginning in summer. Trump's tariff policy is the only thing that can slow the US economy's recession. If a deal with China zeros out all tariffs, the recession in the US can be put into cold storage.
What are the top US recession predictions 2025 users should follow?
Looking for solid sources that can signal the US recession? Keep an eye on Zephyr's predictions market and expert forecasts from the Fed, the IMF, and top economists. Their predictions in May were that it would be a mild slowdown, not a deep recession.
How accurate is the current US recession forecast 2025?
As they say, sources vary. Zephyr users predict the US economic recession will start in 2025. The Fed and the IMF believe it has high chances, but have not confirmed. Check Zephyr predictions to see how the off odds of the US recession forecast 2025 look in real time!
What indicators point to a possible recession in US markets?
There are multiple signs of the upcoming recession in the US. These are real-time predictions on Zephyr, rising layoffs, tighter credit, slowing retail sales, etc. See how real people predict it on Zephyr. That's a great opportunity to see what mood prevails today.
When will the next US economy recession likely begin?
Most forecasts say it can begin late 2025 or early 2026. Yet, the timing depends on many factors, such as inflation, Fed policy, and consumer resilience. Wondering what the current level and odds of the US recession are? Check Zephyr users' predictions right away!